Weather is responsible for nearly 70% of all air traffic delays in the U.S. For one major U.S. airline based in the Northeast, traditional weather models provided useful guidance, but they wanted deeper insights and a more tailored solution to compare against standard forecasts and support real-time decision-making.
In 2022, the airline first partnered with Baron Weather to integrate API data into its operational systems. Soon after, they discovered a bigger need for a custom, high-resolution modeling solution focused specifically on convective weather events in their region.
The airline was looking for greater predictive accuracy to support efficient flight planning, stronger decision support tools, and a better understanding of how complex weather impacts could affect daily operations. They also wanted to enhance their ability to respond quickly to evolving conditions, minimize delays and cancellations, and improve the timing and coverage of storm forecasts.
That’s where Baron Weather’s modeling team stepped in with a tailored approach to meet those challenges.
A Tailored Approach to Forecasting
Baron worked closely with the airline’s meteorology and operations teams to develop and continually refine a high-resolution custom model tailored to the Northeast U.S. To achieve this, Baron delivered a customized model tailored to the airline’s individual needs, incorporating advanced data assimilation techniques, alongside a range of environmental inputs such as atmospheric observations, soil moisture and temperature, and local water body conditions.
Drawing on decades of scientific expertise, the modeling team also applied precise tuning of model physics and dynamics to better capture the region's complex atmospheric behavior associated with convective weather.
The model is continually enhanced with scientific advancements and real-world performance evaluations to maintain accuracy and relevance. This ensures that it adapts to evolving operational demands, while improving situational awareness and giving dispatch and ops teams a decisive time advantage.
Proven Performance for Convective Weather
Baron’s custom model was designed with a goal to outperform existing public models, like HRRR, for convective weather scenarios. In side-by-side comparisons, the Baron model has demonstrated clear advantages, especially during high-impact, fast-developing convective events that challenge airline operations and decision-making.
The Baron model initiates convection more quickly, more closely mirroring the natural timing of storm development. It also shows stronger agreement with observed storm location and intensity, offering a more accurate picture of when and where severe weather will occur. In addition, it provided better forecasting of rapidly evolving convective scenarios.
Beyond storm structure, the Baron model delivers enhanced accuracy for surface variables, including 2-meter temperatures and 10-meter wind speeds, which are key factors in flight planning and ground operations. It also offers greater precision with fewer false alarms and better alignment with actual weather event frequency, helping reduce unnecessary disruptions while improving confidence in forecast-driven decisions.
Customized Data & Delivery
To make the new model even more accessible, Baron created an aviation focused package within a Baron Weather display product, allowing the airline to view their high-res forecast model side-by-side with other critical data layers. This integrated interface empowers forecasters and operations teams to track storm development in real time, evaluate departure and arrival weather windows, and make more informed routing decisions with greater confidence.
By consolidating key insights into a single pane of glass, the airline’s team can assess developing conditions earlier and more accurately, supporting faster decision-making and reducing delays before weather impacts occur.
Collaboration For Continuous Improvement
This isn’t a one-and-done deployment. Baron continues to work side-by-side with the airline to refine the model through seasonal changes, new data inputs, and ongoing performance assessments. The model is continuously enhanced based on operational feedback and scientific advancement, ensuring it remains a powerful decision-support tool.
Build Your Tailored Solution Today
Baron’s custom modeling solutions are available for other aviation clients seeking better insight, fewer delays, and stronger weather-informed operations. Whether you're managing a hub in a complex climate region or need improved prediction of specific weather threats, Baron Weather can help you design and deploy a custom forecast model tailored to your needs.
Ready to explore custom modeling for your operations? Get started here.
